Energy Projections of IEA Countries with Extended Transitions Indicators

National projections have become more and more relevant within the evolving landscape of commitments taken by many countries globally. Governments and other data users benefit from these projections for monitoring the progress towards national energy and climate targets, refining energy models and informing policy reviews and recommendations.

The IEA is delighted to inform all data users of the release of Energy Projections of IEA Countries – with Extended Transitions Indicators, a newly designed IEA database developed by the Secretariat to better support policy assessment in an evolving energy landscape.

The database includes: i) energy system projections to 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on national scenario modelling in the format of simplified balances, where available, for IEA member countries, accession countries, and the European Union, as collected from national administrations; together with summary balances for historical years for all IEA member countries; ii) projections to 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on national scenario modelling for a set of transition indicators (e.g., greenhouse gas emission estimates, economic intensities, carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS), emissions factors of electricity and heat generation, etc) developed based on the data collected from countries, consistently with the methodologies adopted by the IEA in the relevant historical databases.

The database includes projections data corresponding to multiple scenario categories, if available at national level, for example corresponding to different pathways (business as usual, more or less ambitious targets, etc). As depicted below such data will allow analysing the national energy systems and the corresponding socio-economic and climate impacts under various pathways. 

Comparison in between multiple scenarios 

The emission estimates included in the database allows monitoring the progress towards national climate targets and can be used for informing policy reviews and recommendations.  

Monitoring progress towards climate targets 

Additionally, where available, the database includes data corresponding to the emerging fuels and technologies such as hydrogen and synthetic fuels, heat pumps and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) which are expected to have a prominent role in the upcoming decades. 

Tracking emerging fuels and technologies