The massive growth that the data center GPU and AI ASIC market experienced in 2023 is expected to continue in 2024 before stabilizing in the year following.
Generative AI’s rise since late 2022 has boosted demand for high-speed memory technologies, including DDR5 DRAM, GDDR6 DRAM, etc., as well as HBM .
Thanks to strong momentum in GPUs and ASICs for AI computing, the HBM market is booming. Bit shipments are expected to keep growing vigorously in the next five years, with a 48% CAGR between 2023 and 2029.
Generative AI’s explosion also impacts the packaging market segment: according to Yole Group, it will grow to US$333 million in 2029.
Datacenter processor shipments for AI acceleration were growing strongly in 2023, and this trend is expected to continue in 2024 and 2025. Yole Group expects the datacenter GPU market to grow to US$162 billion in 2029, representing an almost 26% CAGR between 2023 and 2029. Among these datacenter GPUs, the flagship segment with GPUs such as Nvidia H100, B100, and AMD MI300, which are mainly used for generative AI training and inferences, is expected to grow. AI ASICs are also growing strongly to a US$ 71 billion market in 2029, representing a 35% CAGR.
Yole Group has been investigating AI technologies and their interactions with the semiconductor industry for a while. Leveraging its significant expertise in semiconductor technologies and extensive understanding of the related ecosystem, the company has just unveiled its recent report, Generative AI: Impact on Processor, Memory, Advanced Packaging and Substrates. This report examines the notable transformation occurring in the semiconductor landscape, propelled by the swift adoption and advancement of generative AI.
Emilie Jolivet,Director and Business Line Director of the More Moore activities at Yole Group
“The decision to investigate the effect of AI in depth was triggered by the unprecedented investment from major hyperscalers in GPU and AI ASIC, which far exceeded our initial projections. This surge in investment was reflected in the remarkable revenue growth, with 2023 figures more than double those of 2022. At Yole Group, we anticipate a comparable growth rate for 2024, indicating a potential sustained trend that is likely to continue to reshape the industry.”
The impact of this trend extends beyond the financial aspects, significantly influencing the semiconductor supply chain. The increased demand for advanced chipsets optimized for AI workloads is impacting the existing supply chain, leading to potential bottlenecks and shortages. Moreover, the shift towards AI-specific hardware is driving a need for new manufacturing processes and technologies, further challenging the industry.
The Generative AI report from Yole Group is a comprehensive analysis of generative AI’s impact on the semiconductor industry. This new report examines the AI processor market, including GPU and AI ASIC, and evaluates the HBM market in terms of bits evolution and revenue. Furthermore, it assesses the foundry market’s dynamics and trends and investigates the packaging market, focusing on interposer and HBM stack technologies. Yole Group also analyzed the substrate market and its role in the supply chain. The Generative AI report delivers a global understanding of the ecosystem and key players with the major competitors at each level of the supply chain, the interactions and interdependencies within the ecosystem, and the key beneficiaries of the generative AI momentum… More info.
NVIDIA, SK HYNIX, AND TSMC WERE LEADING IN 2023 – BUT WHAT ABOUT THE COMING YEARS?
Nvidia is the frontrunner in the generative AI market, propelled by its flagship GPUs and experiencing substantial growth in its datacenter business line. Meanwhile, AMD’s MI300 is gaining traction in the field. Major players like Google, Amazon, and Chinese BATX are forging ahead with the development of AI ASICs tailored as custom chips for internal use and cloud services. Their goal is to lessen dependence on datacenter GPUs from fabless companies, reduce costs, and harness processors designed specifically for their requirements. This emergence of AI ASICs presents significant competition for Nvidia. Intel’s Gaudi and several startups with varied approaches are also entering the market.
Adrien Sanchez,Senior Technology & Market Analyst, Computing & Software at Yole Group
“In the foundry market, TSMC dominates, with Samsung, Intel Foundry Services, and SMIC striving to carve out their share of this lucrative opportunity. These foundries cater to diverse clients and offer a range of technologies to meet the increasing demand for AI accelerators. Additionally, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are expanding their wafer capacity for HBM production to capitalize on opportunities in the AI market. While SK hynix currently leads the HBM market, competition is intensifying with Samsung’s involvement.”
In the advanced packaging field, Intel, Samsung, and TSMC have emerged as prominent leaders, providing distinct 2.5D and 3D technologies for high-performance applications. These companies are at the forefront of innovation in the high-end packaging market. Despite challenges faced by IC substrate makers in recent times, the AI momentum is anticipated to have a positive long-term impact on the industry. This optimism stems from recent investments, capacity expansions, and advancements in glass core substrate technologies.
Yole Group invites you to follow the semiconductor technologies, related devices, applications, and markets on www.yolegroup.com.
Save the date today and attend Yole Group’s presentation at Semicon Southeast Asia on May 29th at 10:55 am: Chiplets and Heterogeneous Integration: market and technology trends by Yik Yee Tan, Senior Technology & Market Analyst, Semiconductor Packaging. Do not hesitate to ask for a meeting with our expert: HERE.
In addition, do not miss Emilie Jolivet’s presentation: Why chiplet will transform the semiconductor ecosystem from design to packaging? during 2024 OCP REGIONAL SUMMIT on April 25 in Lisbon, Portugal. More information HERE.
